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Wednesday, May 04, 2016

The Dow fell another 100 points today on almost average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would suggest.  The summation index is heading lower.  Oversold on the short term technical indicators and some of the medium term indicators are also in the range where some upside should be seen.  If I had the guts I would have tried the SPY May calls today but I'm waiting for an entry point for puts.  There is some support here at 2050 for the S&P 500 but if and when that fails we should start to drop more rapidly.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume and we took out the 50 day moving average.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market then you get the idea of what could happen.  Gold was off $10 on the futures as the US dollar was up again.  The XAU dropped 4 points and GDX fell 1 1/4.  Volume here was good again as the rally in gold has come to a close for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a pretty orderly decline so far with no signs of panic.  That in itself tells me that there is probably more room to go on the downside.  I cannot chase it here and expect to make any money on a put trade.  We'll need to see some kind of attempt for some upside in order to get positioned.  There is also the possibility that the decline will simply end.  There's always some risk out there.  The small stocks have already dropped pretty good and any turnaround in AAPL will get things going to the upside in my opinion.  I'm going to stick with the theory that any rally here can be shorted if we happen to get one.  So I'll try and be patient.  I will also probably let the employment report get out of the way before trying the next trade.  But we'll see what happens between now and the close on Friday.  Overseas markets were weak but not drastically.  We'll watch what happens overnight and go from there.

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