Tuesday, May 24, 2016
The Dow took off to the upside today as it gained 213 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down but after today it may stop its decline. We got a signal yesterday in the McClellan oscillator that predicted a big move within 2 days. We got it today. It is possible that this is a second shoulder on the S&P 500 head and shoulders pattern but I doubt it. Whenever everybody recognizes something in this game, like the widely advertised head and shoulders top pattern, it never fails to not work. What we have instead is what looks like a rectangle consolidation. I think we're heading to 2100 now for the S&P. I will still be looking to purchase some SPY June calls on a pullback. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. No trades here for now. Gold fell over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. Gold is taking a much needed rest. The XAU lost 5 points and GDX dropped 1 1/3. Volume was heavy. The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is intact for now. Support for gold is at $1200. Mentally I'm feeling a bit disappointed about not already being in the June SPY calls. However there wasn't exactly a clear buy signal there. Sometimes in bear markets rallies pop up out of nowhere. It is a result of short covering with some actual buying once the move gets going. This isn't a bear market at the moment. That is why I think this is an initiation move to higher prices for equities. The leadership of the small stocks is also a clue that we are headed up. Perhaps all the way into the June expiration. That's a guess as usual. We have also just broken through a short term downtrend line in some of the major averages. Perhaps a pullback to that line will offer the chance at some calls. Of course we could always just simply head up with no retreat. We'll see. European markets were very strong overnight mimicking the Dow. Asian markets were generally weak. That should change tonight. We'll see if there is any upside follow through tomorrow for the Dow.