Monday, May 02, 2016
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 117 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index appears to be trending sideways. We were higher from the start and the opportunity to get the SPY May calls appears to have passed. If we continue higher into the end of the week there might be a chance to switch back to the SPY May puts. But we will have to see light volume and poor breadth for that idea to work. There is a chance that we run up to new highs here as well. That is the least expected scenario and that gives it perhaps the best chance of occurring. GE was up 1/8 and the volume was very light. The 50 day moving average is still showing support here. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures despite another good drop in the US dollar. The gold shares lagged as the XAU fell 2 1/8 and GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. Perhaps it is time for another pause for the gold shares. Maybe even some decent decline as some of these issues have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still looking for higher prices near term as things got bearish pretty quickly. However right now there isn't a clear signal one way or the other. Getting long Friday on the decline was the near term play. So now we'll have to wait. The employment report on Friday could be the next big catalyst. But we don't want to get into a guessing game. If things line up OK, I'll look at the SPY May puts on Thursday. If we are choppy into Friday, I may have to sit things out. We'll let the market decide for us what to do. Japan has been very weak in the past two sessions so we should see some kind of bounce there hopefully. The other Asian and European markets were generally weaker but not as much as Japan. We'll see if they follow the US higher overnight.