Friday, May 27, 2016
Still moving up as the Dow gained 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. Nothing in the way for higher prices as the sellers have left the field for now. Short term overbought and staying there. At this rate, new all time highs are in the cards. The only problem is the volume and that is a recurring theme. Yellen came and went without any meaningful market reaction. There has been no snap back to the broken downtrend line. It appears that I have missed another trading opportunity again. GE was up a few cents and the volume was very light. Gold was off $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX dropped 2/3. Volume was good even though it was a getaway Friday. The uptrend in the gold shares has ended. Higher rates in the US and the rise in the dollar will put a lid on gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm not sure what the next move for me will be. It is too late to join the rally in my opinion unless we see some decline. I'm also not sure that we will blast off if we hit new highs because the volume just isn't there. Perhaps the next trade will be the SPY June puts when we get to 2125 on the S&P 500. But at this point I just don't know. Missing this rally has me in not such a good mental spot. There is still plenty of time in the June option cycle to do something. However getting the market to cooperate is another story. I'll have to check all the charts and regroup over the long weekend. There is not doubt that we are heading higher. It is a matter of how much and how long. We could set nominal new highs in June. But if we don't see a pick up in volume, any breakout would be suspect. Of course none of this has happened yet and the market will as always do what it wants. Plenty to ponder. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.