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Tuesday, May 03, 2016

The Dow dropped 140 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  My thinking is that we have something going on here and it will be to the downside.  The technical indicators are already oversold though.  But the tone of the market has turned negative.  Today everything was sold and that usually means that there is something going on underneath the surface.  What that is, I don't know.  I suppose that I'll be looking for some type of near term light volume rally to buy the SPY May puts.  But we may just drop from here.  I suppose in hindsight that yesterday was the day to get short.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Still holding on to the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good to the downside again.  It is shaping up as a poor week for the miners so far.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has picked up in the past week and it is something to pay attention to.  I'm not sure what it all means but the market is starting to roll over.  Of course this could all change tomorrow but I don't think so.  With the already oversold conditions, it's dangerous to try the puts.  However we also must recognize what is happening here.  Selling has sprung up out of nowhere and we must pay attention.  The employment number on Friday could be trouble.  That's a guess as usual.  There's still plenty of time left in the May option cycle.  I would like to have a better handle on things here but I don't.  Is it possible that we hold up here and head to new highs?  Anything is possible in the game.  But I'm going to be looking for lower prices.  What is needed is the proper entry point and waiting for some upside is my thought right now.  If we simply continue lower from here, then the trade has been missed.  Foreign markets that were open were generally lower.  That trend will probably continue overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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