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Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Volatility was the word of the day as the Dow bounced around during the trading session.  The most watched index finished down just 3 points after all was said and done.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average.  The breadth was weak but the small stocks outperformed.  Mixed signals have been the rule lately and today was no exception.  The summation index is still heading lower.  2040 has still held things up for the S&P 500 so far.  We've had plenty of attempts to break things here but have yet to fall through.  I'm now considering the SPY June calls.  But that could change.  GE lost a dime on light volume.  Gold fell $17 on the futures as the US dollar rallied on the release of the Fed minutes.  The XAU dropped 7 1/4, while GDX lost 2 points.  Volume was very heavy in a run to the exits.  The uptrend line from the beginning of the year was broken for the gold shares.  We are finally going to get a rest here and it is certainly due.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still trying to figure out which way to go here but the signals remain ambiguous.  Plenty of chances lately to break down but the market has held on.  So I'm thinking now may not be the time for a decent decline.  We've really just been moving sideways since mid-March in the S&P 500.  Whichever way we break out should produce something more lasting in nature.  That's the theory anyway.  As always, the market will go where it wants.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are oversold.  But we haven't seen a bounce and we haven't seen a breakdown.  Like I have said, things are mixed and you can make a case either way.  I've been patient but sooner or later you've got to step up to the plate.  The US dollar broke what I considered an important level at 94, only to come right back up.  A strong dollar usual considered bearish for stocks but I'm not always a buyer of that theory.  It is negative generally for gold though.  Unless we are getting an enormous flight to safety.  That isn't the case today.  So we'll see how the overseas markets react to todays Fed minutes and take it from there. 

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