Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Back and forth remains the theme as the Dow fell 180 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still heading lower. There was no upside follow through to yesterdays light volume rise. We are still above the 2040 level on the S&P 500 but it has the feel of something about to break down. The short term technical indicators are oversold. Too late for any trades in the May option cycle for me. The head and shoulders top in the S&P 500 is still there. A break below 2040 will trigger it. We've got the Fed minutes due tomorrow. I don't see any factors to drive the market higher right now. It appears that we will be heading down. GE was off 1/4 on better volume. Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was average. A lot of positive gold news in the media and that is usually a sign of at least a short term top. However nothing has caused any significant drop here this year. I'm sure that will change at some point. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I haven't been able to place a trade in a few weeks. Patience is always a good thing but waiting around for the next decent signal gets old. On the plus side, I haven't lost any money. However it gets tiring when you put in the day to day work and have nothing to show for it. You cannot force the issue though. So perhaps tomorrow will be the day that we finally break down. Volume picked up to the downside and we are already oversold. That is a recipe for lower prices in my mind. Why didn't I buy some index puts today you may ask? It is option expiration week and with 3 days left the risk simply is too much. We could easily bump up tomorrow or go sideways for the rest of the week. I do better with longer term trades in my mind. I did consider getting some June SPY calls today but did not. There just seems to be no sustained buying power in the market right now. The foreign markets were mixed with Asia higher and Europe slightly lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.