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Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Drifting higher today as the Dow gained 47 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  Still trying to convincingly move above the recent congestion zone for most stock indices.  I do believe that will happen but it is a question of when.  Retail sales data out tomorrow and that should provide some direction one way or the other.  Short term overbought again but that condition can persist.  Only 3 days to go in the February option cycle and the risk increases for any type of short term trade here.  GE was up 1/8 on light to average volume.  I sold the February GE calls.  I could not take the risk of a drop here with such a short time left in this option cycle.  I chose the conservative path.  The gain was 140%.  GE could continue higher into the end of the week as it too is in a congestion zone and looking to break out.  $23 would not be out of the question.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was weaker today.  Gold is trying to hold around its 200 day moving average but it doesn't look like it will.  That's a guess on my part.  The XAU was up 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM moved fractionally higher, while GG had a fractional loss.  Earnings are due this week for both ABX and NEM.  My February ABX calls are still dead.  They will probably expire worthless.  A step backwards for the trading plan this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report, as the stock indices continue to try and move forward.  The financials hit new recovery highs today and that should bode well for the overall market.  We'll see.  The positive expiration bias should be in effect as well.  Gold is doing nothing and the gold shares have been weak for months.  I'm not sure when I'll try another trade here.  The gold shares always look tempting but they continue to disappoint.  Money has been moving elsewhere.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets and check the US retail sales tomorrow.   

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