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Monday, February 25, 2013

So we got our answer as to what the markets are going to do today.  It was a one day negative reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 216 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Europe is back in the picture and that is not a good sign and hasn't been for quite a while.  The stock indices forget about it for a while but now it's back.  So we're in the headline risk zone again.  That doesn't include the Fed speaking the next couple of days or the revised GDP report out on Thursday.  The smaller averages have broken their up trend lines.  They led the way up and they are probably leading the way down.  The up trend lines on the major averages are still intact.  I'd short any rallies from here, although the best chance may be gone.  GE was down over 1/2 on good volume.  There is a gap to fill at about $22.40.  The 50 day moving average comes in at about $21.70.  I don't have any trades in mind here though at this moment.  Gold found a bid and was up $13 on the futures, $5 more in the aftermarket.  This despite a higher move in the US dollar today.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade is coming back.  At least it looked that way today.  The XAU was up 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  I'm still considering the April ABX calls for another trade even if I manage to get some March OEX puts.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I am disappointed that I did not move fast enough on this mornings rally to buy some March OEX puts.  The option premium almost came down to what I was willing to pay.  The stock indexes have sped up now and that makes it a tougher game to play.  We are short term oversold now on the stock indices.  Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 1475 from the up trend line and at 1460 from the previous resistance.  One of those areas should hold things for now.  Sometime within the next couple of weeks I'd like to purchase the April ABX calls.  Even though March is historically the weakest month for the price of gold, I want to put this trade on.  We are both short and medium term oversold for the gold shares.  Nobody wants them and haven't for quite a while.  I could be wrong again on the gold shares though.  I lost plenty of money last year trying to time a long entry here.  It only worked once.  So we'll see.  We will have to see if there is rampant selling in the overseas markets tonight.  We'll also have to keep an eye out for follow through selling here tomorrow.  And we've got Big Ben to deal with too.  The Washington budget problem coming on Thursday seems like it's far away.  Things are suddenly getting a lot more interesting on Wall Street.     

1 comment:

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