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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Another one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The major average fell 20 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Perhaps today was the day to try the March OEX puts as we were up around 75 points during the session.  The volume wasn't anything special either.  The OEX puts I'm looking at got to just about what I'd like to pay for them but I did not act.  Maybe tomorrow.  There is a chance that we could move to new all time highs on the Dow here as well.  The technicals are mixed at this point, with no clear buy or sell.  The GDP revision was a non-event as is the Washington budget mess at this point.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold continued lower by another $20 today.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU fell 3 points.  ABX and GG lost 2/3, while NEM dipped 1/3.  Volume was average to good here again.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the April ABX calls.  May have to rethink this tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A new month starts tomorrow and that should bring in some positive money flows.  The summation index should be at about the zero line.  What it does here will be key for the near term market movement.  I'm still thinking that the OEX puts will be the way to go here.  Plenty of bullishness abounds.  But I could be wrong and we might make a run at new highs on the Dow.  Since the technicals are mixed it is a tough call.  Gold is heading back down and $1550 needs to hold there to keep the bullish case alive.  My guess is that we will hold since the precious metal is very oversold even with the bounce earlier this week.  Two weeks and a day left in the March option cycle.  We'll see if there is any news out of Washington tonight and the markets reaction to events tomorrow.  

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