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Friday, February 22, 2013

Bouncing back today as the Dow rallied 120 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  More questions than answers here.  Is that it for the decline or not?  Will we now move on to new highs for the Dow and the S&P 500?  Are we about to start a trading range?  There is plenty to ponder over this weekend.  I'd like to say that I know which way it will all turn out but I don't.  However if we continue higher and the volume is light, I'll be inclined to try the OEX March puts.  We'll have Washington in the spot light again next week.  The mandatory budget cuts are looming unless a deal is struck.  It is a rerun of the "fiscal cliff" drama.  Markets will respond and react.  It's just another thing to deal with in the trading game.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Could we move higher here?  Sure, it's not completely overbought on the weekly charts.  But I can't say for sure and have no trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold was off $5 during the futures session and made that back in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was up a touch today and is short term overbought.  The XAU fell 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light to average volume.  I'm back to considering the April ABX calls but there is no hurry to buy them.  We'll have to see if gold can hold the $1550 level.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility made a comeback this week.  We'll see if that continues.  I'm not sure what is in store next for the stock indexes.  The upwards climb was stalled for the first time this week.  However buyers did step in today and that was to be expected.  We will have to watch carefully what happens from here.  Gold continues to drop.  Money has been leaving that sector for weeks on end.  I was looking at a five year monthly chart last night for ABX.  February will probably end with the RSI indicator being at its lowest level within the half decade.  It is also the RSI level from which we have at least seen some kind of monthly bounce.  Hence, I'm looking at the calls there for April.  I will have to re-check all of the charts over the weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan for the markets next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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