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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

An interesting session today as the Dow fell 108 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Today was the first very negative trading day of the year.  No trend lines have been broken to the downside but if the decline continues, the rally from last November will be in question.  I would expect buyers to step in on this dip though.  After that, I may be looking at the March OEX puts.  No real reason for todays decline.  We were already heading lower when the Fed minutes took the stock indices south.  Evidently a bit of sustained growth in the economy will end the free money game.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX spiked up.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Perhaps a rest here is in the cards near term.  I have no trading ideas for GE at this time.  Gold continues to get absolutely pummeled.  The precious metal futures fell $25 and another $15 in the aftermarket.  We are almost at the critical $1550 level.  It looks like a free fall.  The US dollar was a lot stronger today.  That usually means a decline in stocks but it hasn't really occurred until today.  The XAU fell almost 7 1/2.  ABX and GG lost 1 1/4, while NEM was down 2 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  Needless to say the gold shares remain under severe pressure.  Money is fleeing this sector.  A good time to be short here, which I'm not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but today has the potential of the start of a long awaited decline in the stock indexes.  There is a glaring negative divergence in the RSI indicator on the daily charts of many stock indices.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  I will be looking at the March OEX puts if we start to move back up.  Gold is sinking fast.  If it doesn't hold at $1550 there is no telling how low it will go.  It's possible that the long bull market in gold could be over.  That's a guess as usual but we are at a critical juncture there.  We'll see if we get any bleed over selling in the foreign stock markets and see what happens tomorrow.

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