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Thursday, May 06, 2010

Volatility exploded today as we had a mini-crash in the stock indices. It is being blamed at the moment on a trading error at a major NYSE firm. The Dow lost 348 points today after being down almost 1000 points. The volume was huge. I can't get an accurate number right now on the advance/declines but suffice it to say they were very negative. The McClellan oscillator is now deeply oversold. It is in the area where a bounce should occur. With that in mind I actually purchased some OEX calls today. Not a wise move. They are showing a loss. This will be a short term trade of a day or two. We'll see. Gold was a safe haven play again as it rose about $20 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 3/4 however. ABX and GG were up 3/4 and NEM rose over a buck. Volume was heavy. We are just about at another buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio, even though we are overbought. The dollar continues higher as well. At some point gold will have to notice the dollar strength but the safe haven trade rules for now. We are now over $1200 on gold and obviously that was the area to trade. Still may not be too late. Mentally I'm a bit weary from todays action. Tomorrows employment report seem like an afterthought with all the problems in Greece. The prudent thing to do here probably was to stay on the sidelines. I didn't and it will probably cost me. That said, The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside here and a decent bounce should occur. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

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