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Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 225 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I am going to say that the top for the stock indices is in for a while. The weekly charts show an A-B-C-D-E, 5 wave pattern from the lows of March 2009. Tops are made with volatility and that has certainly returned here. If we get any type of snap back move it can be shorted in my opinion. I'm still looking towards the OEX puts but it may be too late. Todays action should put the summation index in a clear downtrend. Gold dropped $14 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU fell a couple of points as the gold shares held up rather well, which has been the case as of late. ABX and GG were about flat after being lower early. NEM lost 2/3. Volume picked up. The dollar was up 1% on the day and gold finally reacted lower as it should. But the gold shares relative strength continues here, so I won't rule out another ABX call trade before expiration. Plus with all the uncertainty regarding Greece and the euro here, safe haven plays could be in vogue for a while longer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Volatility in the stock market has returned. It makes the trading game a lot tougher but when isn't it tough? Option premiums are raised during times like these which makes things more expensive. That in turn increases risk. There's a chance I may just let this week pass and wait until the employment report is digested. We'll see.

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