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Friday, May 14, 2010

Volatility has returned as the Dow lost 162 points today. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative and the volume was average. I was hoping we would hold up until Monday but it was not to be. I still might try the OEX puts next week but the risk will be high. Again, the timing will have to be good to succeed. There isn't really a clear signal and the short term trades are not my strong suit. However, the summation index continues lower indicating that the trend is down. Gold was pretty flat on the day. The XAU rose a point. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares opened higher, sold off early with the general market and then came all the way back. Who knows, perhaps I'll try the gold share calls next week. The relative strength remains strong. The volume in the ABX May 45 calls today was extremely heavy. That is where I will be looking but it may be too late there as well. The dollar was very strong today as well, which may have affected the price of the metal. We are overbought on the gold shares but have been for quite a while. Option expiration week is coming as well. It will be interesting. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There will be opportunities next week. Whether or not I can take advantage of them is the question. We all know that it won't be easy. With 5 days to go on the options, things will get compressed. I have the feeling that I'll be trying to do something though. I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and come up with a strategy for next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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