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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Selling in the last couple of hours took the Dow to a loss of 114 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. You had to expect that we weren't just going to go up in a straight line here. I do think that the OEX puts will be the next trade before the May expiration. The timing is the key. Perhaps today was the time to buy. I think the optimum scenario would be to purchase them early next week. So I'll be looking for the market to try and head back to around 532 on the OEX and go from there. Gold was off $13 on the futures and the XAU lost 3 1/3. ABX down 7/8, GG off 3/4 and NEM dropped 1 1/2. Volume was average. You've got to figure that the gold shares need a rest too but they have been so strong lately that any drop could be short lived. I don't know if I'm going to try a trade there in the next 6 days because we are overbought and have been for quite a while. But we'll see. The dollar was higher again today. Perhaps if we do drop next week the flight to safety trade will still be in play. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we've had a decent bounce in the indices and the next question is what's next? I would expect some type of retest of the lows of last week but I don't think it will be extreme. I'd like to see the VIX reach 22 in the next couple of days to attempt the May OEX put trade. That's probably wishful thinking. I think that I will let tomorrow pass and then look to do something early next week.

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