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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

It was another downer as the Dow lost 66 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. We are in liquidation mode, for whatever reasons. Oversold and staying there which is never a bullish scenario. I still feel that there will be weakness into the end of this week but probably not enough to try the OEX puts with 2 days to go. But you never know. Summation index continues lower. It isn't a meltdown just yet but could be later this year. Volatility remains higher than average. Gold dropped over $20 today and the XAU fell 6 and change. ABX off 1 3/4, GG down over 2 bucks and NEM fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. My ABX calls got killed. It was a 90% loss. I didn't have a stop loss order in but it dropped so fast not even that may have prevented the devastation. But that's what happens when you trade the options during expiration week. It can work out big for or against you. The Gold/XAU ratio is back on a buy signal but there isn't enough time for the May option cycle to take advantage. I simply blew that trade. It didn't feel good when it got filled and time was not on my side. Should have exited yesterday but hindsight is always profitable. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I really should just step aside here and let the May expiration pass. But I still think there could be a trade in the OEX puts if we get a bounce tomorrow morning. Very risky though and there's the problem of just trying to make back the money that was lost today. That is never a good strategy. I also expect a decent move to the upside on Monday. But it's all just a guess and my guesses haven't been right lately. The prudent path would be to sit out the next 2 days and take it from there. We'll see.

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