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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

A big upside move to start a shortened option expiration week as the Dow gained 170 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be moving to the upside now. I'm still calling for Friday to be a pretty good down day. The question is from what levels? I'm leaving in an overnight order for some OEX puts. This may not be the brightest idea but I'm going to give it a shot. 3 days only until expiration. I'm hoping to get filled on the follow through upside tomorrow morning and then hold until sometime on Friday. We are almost at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downside and the RSI is at 50 for the OEX. So we'll see. We could just shoot straight up from here as well. Gold had a great day, up $20 to $30 depending on which contract you're watching. The XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG up over a buck and NEM up 7/8. Volume was good. The dollar was weak today for a change and we are being turned back at the 200 day moving average on the daily charts here. However I would have liked to see a better move in the gold shares today. It didn't happen and that is puzzling. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So it looks like I'm going to try a short term OEX trade here and I usually don't fare too well with this type of trade. I may just have to wait until Thursday to put it on. The overnight order that I have is out of the money and positioned to be filled if we get a 3 to 4 point upside move in the OEX tomorrow morning. So we'll see what happens.

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