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Thursday, February 04, 2010

The stock market took a hit today as the Dow lost 268 points on good volume. Declines beat advances by over 8 to 1. My order for OEX puts wasn't filled as I have missed another opportunity. We got the snap back from the oversold condition but I was hoping we would hold up for another day. We didn't. Hard to figure where the next bounce will come from now. Employment report tomorrow and that will probably be sold as well. It kind of has the feel of a worldwide liquidity problem again. We'll see what happens but it won't be easy to trade. Gold got clobbered, down almost $50. The XAU lost 8 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down $2 or more on heavy volume. The dollar had a good day in the flight to safety. So why isn't gold doing better? All commodities are being sold at the moment. However if I do try a bounce trade, I think I may do it in the gold shares. It's early to think about it seriously though but I could be wrong. The Gold/XAU ratio signal is still there. The trouble is that just like the stock market, the gold market is oversold and staying there. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So where do we go from here, that is always the question. The trend is down and I don't see a change there anytime soon. Perhaps the market will simply continue lower for the February option cycle. That would be for a couple more weeks after tomorrow. I suppose I may have to wait for a clear oversold signal and then try a bounce trade. More tomorrow.

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