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Tuesday, June 12, 2007

The Dow lost 130 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The market headed lower from the beginning. I had an overnight order in for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled so I canceled it. We were actually up about 20 points on the Dow at one point today. But the market soon started to decline and never looked back. The puts I wanted didn't get cheap enough for me but I suppose I just wasn't quick enough to buy them. We are near the lower end of the Bollinger band for the OEX and the 50 day moving average. I might try some OEX calls tomorrow if it sets up for me. But the risk is very high here now with only 3 days to go and important data coming out. Perhaps the sidelines would be the more prudent route. Gold lost 6 bucks today and the XAU dropped a point and a half. Really no interest here lately but I must say the gold shares have held up better then the metal itself. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling good. I do think we are getting overdone here on the downside. That doesn't mean that we can't head lower but I think we will see a good pop to the upside in the indices before the week is out. I could be wrong. The summation index is still heading down and that isn't a bullish sign. However I do think that we are setting up here for a summer rally. It will take a while for a bottom to form but I am thinking right now that some July calls will be in order. I'll be taking another look at GE in that regard. So the Fed minutes will be released tomorrow and I think it will be a mover to the downside. If and when that occurs I will be looking at the OEX calls for a snap back on the PPI release Thursday morning. I do not think the producer prices went up that much last month. That is what my indicators show. But who knows?

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