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Thursday, June 07, 2007

The Dow got clobbered to day, down almost 200 points. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. Interesting. Declining volume was 10 to 1 over advancing volume also. There are no buyers all of a sudden. We are oversold and there will be a bounce. I may try and play it and I am looking at OEX calls here. We are just about at the 50 day moving average line and that should provide some type of short term support. So I might get some calls tomorrow but it is risky. Gold lost 10 bucks today and the XAU lost 4 and three quarters. The dollar was a bit stronger as US interest rates have gone higher recently. I don't have the signal for getting long gold just yet. It is also possible that we are not going to see it for a while if we break $650 on gold. The level I'm looking for on the US dollar is 83. That is where long term resistance from the weekly down trend line is. That will be the moment of truth for the dollar and hence, gold also in my opinion. Mentally I'm a but tired. Obviously it is a bit more taxing when the market is moving like it has this week but these are the times that can create opportunities. I'm not looking at GE calls anymore, the chart just doesn't look that promising. I do think the overall market will bounce here and that will be the next chance for a trade. Expiration week is coming and that usually has a positive bias. However that doesn't mean that it happens all the time. Today had good volume and perhaps it was a washout of sorts. I do think this decline is setting us up for a summer rally so I will be looking at July calls in some issues now. Also July has an extra week on the options which could bolster the call case. Or not. That's what makes the game such a challenge and difficult to say the least.

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