We got some upside follow through for a change as the Dow rose 241 points on very heavy volume.  the advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has now stalled its downside momentum and is trying to turn around.  I think that it will but that doesn't mean that we won't see some backing and filling in the coming days.  We did finish off of our best levels of the day because at one point the Dow was up over 400.  We had a gap at the open today as well which was a positive.  We are still below the 200 day moving averages for the major stock indices.  However I'm in the bullish camp now and would be looking to purchase some SPY calls if we take a run back down towards the recent lows.  That would change though if we kept moving higher near term and created an overbought short term condition.  We certainly are nowhere near that yet.  But the decline has seemed to be putting on the brakes here.  GE was off a few cents on very heavy volume.  It managed to close above $10.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple days of upside doesn't mean that we're out of the woods but lets just say the horizon is getting clearer.  The positive RSI divergences panned out and that is a plus for the technical picture.  The summation index is also now blown out in negative territory which is another reason to be positive about where we're going from here.  The odds are that the market breadth will continue to get better from here.  But the market goes where it wants.  So like I said, I'll be looking for some kind of retest of the recent lows in the SPY at 260 to establish the next call trade.  There's still over two weeks to go in the November option cycle.  The VIX is over 21, so big moves both ways are still in the cards.  Profits will go to the nimble as the volatility premium in price remains high on the option front.  For now it will be watch and wait for the next opportunity.  Europe and Asia traded higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings with the start of a new month ahead of the jobs report. 

A nice move higher today as the Dow climbed 431 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again.  The market has tried to carve out a bottom here and I think that it will be successful.  The positive RSI divergences have most likely worked this time around.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow but I think that at this point declines can be bought.  I think that the near term low set yesterday for SPY at 260 will hold.  Any decline back towards that number can be bought in my opinion.  A lot of the medium term indicators as well are at points where upside has taken place.  It may be too late for the November calls right now but if we get some more downside, there's a chance this trade could work.  There is still a lot of volatility premium in the November options though.  The timing has to be spot on.  GE announced its earnings along with a dividend cut today.  It sank a point on incredibly extremely high volume.  That may have washed out all the sellers as it traded below $10 a share.  Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Now the question is what do we do from here.  I'm getting bullish here because it appears we have had a washout yesterday to the downside.  If we get any sort of retest move back to the 260 level on the SPY before option expiration, that will be the time to try the calls.  If we continue to move higher form here and get short term overbought, then that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  the market rarely cooperates with what we want to do.  there is still plenty of time in the November option cycle to make something happen.  We also have potential market moving events coming forward with the employment report followed by the midterm elections.  So we will have to keep an eye on things and act appropriately.  It won't be easy but at least we have a couple ideas on how to gain some profits in the November option cycle.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong while Europe was mixed.  We'll see if the rally in the US spills over to the foreign markets overnight.  

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 245 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 245 market would suggest.  The summation index continues lower.  We did have a good bounce in the final half hour or things could have been worse.  I did place an open order for some SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  I may try again tomorrow but the risk is pretty high along with the option premiums.  The VIX remains at 24 and change.  Still oversold and staying there for the short term technical indicators of the major stock averages.  We may have found a short term bottom today for stocks but we'll know more after tomorrows price action.  Although the calls here could just be a catch the falling knife attempt.  I'll consider leaving in an open order after we see where the futures are tonight.  GE was off about 1/8 and volume is still heavy.  Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it to a 10% correction in the S&P today.  Whether or not that stops the selling has yet to be seen.  RUT looks like it is trying to hammer out some kind of bottom here and that would be a plus for the bulls if it does occur.  But it hasn't happened yet.  At least stocks did come up from their lows today and the positive RSI divergences on the major index charts are still in place.  Only a couple of days left here in October so we'll have to see how things close out.  We do have economic data out this week, including the jobs report on Friday.  But in a market environment like this, none of that seems to matter.  We certainly won't stay oversold forever but the jury is still out as to when this current debacle runs its course.  I do think that perhaps now is the time to try the SPY calls for a short term trade.  I'll be checking the tone of things tonight.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

Rock and roll seems to be the name of the game now as the Dow fell 296 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  At least today we didn't close on the lows of the session but I do think that the action was sloppy at best.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  GDP came in good but it doesn't matter when we are in a market like this.  Which is why it is always a good idea to stick with the technical basis.  We're still oversold and staying that way as the decline continues.  I did place an open order for the SPY November calls but it did not come close to being filled.  This is a risky idea but I do feel at some point it will work.  I may try it again on weakness Monday.  But it would have to be short term in nature.  We've seen volume really pick up in the past few days.  What I'd like to see is a blowout downside move on heavy volume that would qualify as a washout.  Today could have been it.  But you don't want to start basing things on guessing in this game.  Another problem with trading here is the option premiums have gone through the roof due to the volatility.  Both puts and calls are expensive.  GE was down another 1/2 on heavy volume.  The gold futures were up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive divergences that I've spoke of this week are still in place.  So a better move up from here is still possible.  The problem here is that there has been no sustained buying lately, just sustained selling.  I do think that everybody now recognizes that fact.  When everyone is on one side of the trade it usually pays to take the other.  That's another reason to maybe try the calls on Monday.  I'm going to have to look everything over this weekend and decide.  I was willing to try that trade today but it would have taken a much bigger drop to get my order filled.  The VIX is over 24 so any price moves will be big going forward.  But it cuts both ways.  I suppose I'll just have to evaluate where I think we're at in the next two days and try to decide if the risk is worth it.  These are some interesting times though.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

We got the bounce back today as the Dow gained 401 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm inclined to believe that we will see more than a one day rally here.  There are plenty of potential positive divergences on many of the stock index charts.  I'm considering getting some SPY November calls on any weakness but would prefer to wait until Monday to attempt this idea.  It also may already be too late.  We'll have to see how it goes tomorrow.  Volatility is rampant at the moment.  But we do have what I was looking for.  A lower low in price and a higher McClellan oscillator.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not looking for any kind of sustained rally here.  But I do think a trading move higher can occur within the next few days and may have begun today.  We'll get plenty of earnings along with GDP to digest tomorrow.  You will have to keep a close eye on the short term indicators to try and attempt anything in the current environment.  So we'll see.  GE dropped almost 2/3 on good volume.  Gold dropped a bit again today as the US dollar was up.  The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  GDX is now back at the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern at 19.  This would be the logical spot to try the calls here but I don't think that I can bring myself to try it.  The rally we saw in the gold shares was primarily driven by the big caps gold stocks.  If the small caps led the way, then I would think that this move had staying power.  I will now most likely wait until the gold share indicators get oversold and they are not there yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose another way to look at todays price action would be the rally out of nowhere that is consistent with down moves.  But we've already had one of those already.  The summation index is still moving down and that implies lower prices going forward.  But it won't go down forever and it is getting pretty low.  Now it could continue to go lower but I don't think by much more.  The positive divergences, if they are true, would make this the ideal time to get long some index calls.  But you don't want to fall in love with any positions because the market is still trying to find its way.  It is an interesting time.  I don't know how the GDP report tomorrow will be interpreted.  It looks like there may have been some earnings missed after the bell.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow. 

The market got slammed again today as the Dow fell 608 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold, staying that way and the expected bounce that I thought would occur certainly didn't happen.  The VIX is now over 25 and I don't think we'll stay up here forever but what do I know?  The breadth today certainly wasn't as bad as a down 600 market would imply.  But you can't argue with price and buyers have been overtaken by sellers.  It was exactly two weeks ago that we had the huge drop in stocks and I'd expect to see some follow downside through tomorrow.  But I don't expect this to go on too much longer because the technical indicators are getting pretty blown out once again.  I'm not looking for the SPY November calls right here as I was yesterday.  But if things continue to progress lower, I can make a case for them after the weekend.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume remains good.  Gold was off a bit on a higher US dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was lighter than it has been.  No real flight to safety for gold today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market is back in free fall mode.  We've crossed the zero line in the summation index and we're falling apart on cue.  Where can we expect to see some support for the S&P 500?  My first guess would be the 2600 level, as that has stopped the previous recent drops.  There is better support at 2500 off of some previous tops made back in 2017 but we are a long way from there.  Perhaps I'll try the SPY calls if we get down to 2600.  At the rate we're going this could happen tomorrow.  But any attempt at the calls here would be fraught with risk because we are in a pretty decent decline here and we are about to hit the 10% correction level for the S&P.  We're now below the 200 day moving average on all of the major stock indices.  There's no place to hide.  So we'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.  The sidelines seems to be the safest bet here at the moment.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Quite a session today as the Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume.  The Dow was off over 500 points early and almost made it all the way back before dropping in the final half hour.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the summation index is still heading lower.  Oversold and staying that way and that is never a positive sign.  That said, the heavy volume today makes me think that a short term low is in place.  I'll be looking for higher prices near term.  We now have potential positive divergences for the S&P on the RSI and the McClellan oscillator.  Now they haven't come to fruition just yet but the potential is there.  I may look to purchase some SPY November calls on weakness tomorrow.  This would not be a long term trade but it could have a chance for a short term profit.  We had a spike in the VIX but it finished well off of its highs.  RUT and a number of the other major stock indices look to have put in daily hammers on their candlestick charts.  So we'll see.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold found a flight to safety today as the futures rose eight bucks.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves up on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was encouraging to see some kind of rally today even if we didn't make it back to positive territory.  Perhaps that can translate into some buying overseas because we are currently experiencing a worldwide liquidation of stock assets.  One of my indicators is flashing a buy signal for the S&P after todays price action.  Combine that with the other oversold technical indicators and you can see why it may be prudent to buy any weakness tomorrow.  Throw in the potential positive divergences that are in place and you can see that buying some calls here makes technical sense.  That doesn't mean it will work but at least there will be some things in your favor and the odds should be on your side.  I'll go over the SPY options tonight and decide what to do.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle though.  Not to mention that as long as the summation index is going lower the trend for price overall is down.  But that won't last forever and they won't ring a bell at the bottom to let you know.  Europe and Asia got clobbered overnight.  We'll see if we get any bounce tomorrow.

Lower to start off the week as the Dow fell 127 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The NASDAQ was higher and RUT has held its recent lows for now so all is not lost for the bulls.  We are short term oversold here so some near term upside is not out of the question.  Rolling into a new option cycle so their is plenty of time for a trade once a valid signal appears.  If we keep drifting lower, I'll look for the calls.  If the VIX makes it back down to its 200 day moving average at around 15, I'll look for the puts.  GE was off about twenty cents but the volume was pretty light.  Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell a points, while GDX shed 1/8.  Volume was light.  I'm still looking at the GDX January calls on a drop back to 19.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some economic data due out this week highlighted by GDP on Friday.  The Feds beige book is out in the middle of the week as well.  Technically speaking, some of the major stock indices look to be putting in short term double bottoms if we move up from here.  That would fit in with the short term oversold condition that we seem to be in right now.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it could provide a floor for price in the very near term.  These are all potential outcomes moving forward, not set in stone.  the market as always will move where it wants to.  However if we do see a bounce higher tomorrow it would make the potential double bottoms look a lot better.  If not, then that scenario will be void.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A lot of hanging around on expiration Friday as the Dow rose 64 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were lower.  The summation index continues down.  The daily charts for the major stock indices remain oversold.  The weekly chart indicators have all rolled over as well.  RUT is already challenging its recent lows and another day like today will break them.  The daily VIX chart looks like it wants to spike up again.  We're rolling into the November option cycle and the premiums are high.  At this rate for price movement the next signal will be a buy if we continue lower into next week.  But it feels like the market is in a precarious state of affairs at the moment.  GE was up almost twenty cents again and the volume remains heavy.  Gold finished little changed and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market tried to stabilize this week and it at least did that.  But it was because of one huge upside session and it hasn't done anything since.  In down trends rallies appear out of nowhere and that day certainly qualifies for that.  The next thing to watch is what happens if we test the recent lows.  If things hold up we are probably out of the woods for now.  If not, we'll have to see how low it goes.  A 10% correction on the SPY would take us to 264.  We're at 276 now.  We have crossed through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and the summation index.  The zero line on the oscillator has proved to be resistance thus far.  Getting above that line would be a plus for the bulls and would start to turn things positive once again.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Ideally I'd like to see a lower low for price with a higher oscillator reading for a positive divergence.  The recent low for the McClellan oscillator was -294.  I do think that we'll stay above that level going forward but I've been wrong before.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with something.  I'm hopeful that some kind of valid trading signal will appear in the coming days.  But I'll try not to push things.  Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back down today as the Dow fell 327 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to turn around but it is now heading lower.  I suppose the next thing to look for here is a lower price with a higher reading in the McClellan oscillator.  That would set up a but signal for the SPY November calls.  But we have to remember that we've breached the zero line in the summation index.  Which means we could simply continue to travel lower.  Right now things aren't setting up as I had hoped so I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  We'll get expiration tomorrow and take it from there.  GE was up almost twenty cents on good volume.  Gold was up a buck or so and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility is the name of the game again.  It makes for tougher trading decisions.  The VIX didn't make it back down to 15 before spiking up again.  But that is the level that I'm looking for in order to try the SPY puts.  I may have to adjust my thinking there.  Perhaps today started the process of retesting the recent lows.  It certainly looks that way with regards to RUT.  Since RUT has been the leader here, keep your eyes on it.  It is short term oversold and the technical indicators have just rolled over from a low level.  We'll have to wait and see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow.  The S&P 500 is still trying to hold on to the 200 day moving average.  The next few trading session should tell the story there.  There's money to be made in this environment if you're up to the task.  Europe and Asia were both down last night.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow as we close out another trading week.

Up and down today as the Dow lost 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving lower but not at the rate it was.  I do believe that it is trying to turn around here just below the zero line.  The Fed minutes caused a brief sell off but nothing more.  Two days to go in the October option cycle and I will wait until next week to attempt the next trade.  If we stay up until Monday or Tuesday, I'll be trying the SPY November puts.  If we drop before then, I'll be looking for a positive divergence in the McClellan oscillator.  I'll also consider getting short when and if the VIX gets back to 15.  That's the game plan going forward as of today.  GE was up almost a dime but off of its best levels of the day.  Volume remains heavy.  Gold fell a few bucks as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX showed slight fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares are holding up for a change.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are trying to calm down after last weeks extreme volatility.  So far so good.  Option premiums for next month are higher than usual due to the volatility.  Combine that with the time premium and the timing of the next trade will have to be precise.  There most likely be a retest of the recent lows and that will be the trade that I'm looking for.  From what level the retest begins is the question that needs to correctly answered.  We also have to see if the McClellan oscillator can make it above the zero line in the near future as well.  So as usual there are plenty of questions that need to be answered.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights overseas market action.

A huge move up from a deeply oversold condition as the Dow soared 547 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here just through the zero line.  It looks like it will make it but we'll see by the end of the week.  Buying the SPY calls yesterday showed nice profits today.  If I was inclined, I would buy the SPY October puts tomorrow on any strength but it's just probably too risky for me.  This was a rally out of nowhere that I was looking for last week.  It looks like most of the major stock indices have held their 200 day moving averages for now.  But RUT led us down and is still below its 200 day.  It foreshadowed the rally today with yesterdays positive action.  I'd keep a close eye on it for clues going forward.  I do not think that we're heading back to new all time highs anywhere soon but I could be wrong.  Let's see how the rest of the week plays out.  GE was off a nickel and volume was pretty heavy.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned lower and the short term technical indicators have turned down as well.  We'll see what happens when it get back to the 200 day moving average at around the 15 level.  That would be the spot to try the SPY puts again if you're so inclined.  I may or may not.  We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  If the VIX somehow gets down to 15 before the Fed minutes, I'll try the SPY puts for a short term trade.  I doubt that will happen but you never know.  Todays move in the market was impressive but I've seen this happen before.  On the plus side the summation index is trying to turn around.  However todays gains were from an extremely oversold condition, with short covering occurring at the same time.  So any follow through will have to be watched closely.  It does appear that my five wave down theory was wrong though.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

A lot of back and forth today but when we closed the Dow was off 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower and is through the zero line.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but RUT did close higher.  I thought about trades both ways today but I think that the wise thing to do here would be to let this expiration week pass and go from there.  Volatility was less today and the short term technical indicators here have rolled over.  But that doesn't mean we couldn't see a spike at some point this week and a drop in prices.  I'll try not to attempt a trade this week unless there is a valid signal.  At this rate I doubt we'll get one.  GE was off over 1/8 as volume contracted but is still above average.  Gold added eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  The daily GDX chart shows a valid head and shoulders bottom with a breakout.  If we wander back to the neckline at 19, that would be the spot to try the GDX calls.  I'm keeping an eye on it as that could be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Completely oversold on the short term technical indicators for most of the major averages.  That doesn't mean that we can't stay that way as the chart of RUT proves that.  But I have to believe that we're getting to some kind of washout point here within the next few days.  Look for heavy volume and you'll know that we're there.  I do think that we'll be choppy now for a while as big breaks usually work out that way.  I'm not looking for any new all time highs.  What we are seeing now could be a repeat of a week ago when the market sold off a bit but did not bounce.  If so we'll soon see lower prices and perhaps a completion of the five wave down pattern that appears to be forming on the S&P 500.  If that is the case a look at the calls before the end of the week could be in order.  But we haven't figured out anything just yet.  As always, the market will go where it wants.  Asia sold off again and Europe was slightly higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading. 

Finally some upside to finish out the week as the Dow rose 287 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down and through the zero line.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  But the breadth remains weak and I don't think we are out of the woods just yet.  I canceled my open order for the SPY October calls.  With only a week to go any trade here would be very risky as time and the volatility premium will be sucked out on both sides of the options.  That doesn't mean that I won't attempt a trade next week.  It does mean that if I do it will have to be lined up pretty good.  The VIX looks like it has topped out here in the short term.  Of course it looked like that three days ago as well.  RUT may have put in a bottom today and if that is the case we'll stop the decline for now.  But we'll have to see how it goes in the beginning of next week too.  GE dropped 3/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold dropped six bucks as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  They did finish well off of the lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a week for stocks and missing the SPY puts here was painful.  But the truth of the matter is the market doesn't care and keeps on going.  The bounce today was weak and I would not be surprised to see another leg down to complete a five wave pattern for the S&P 500 hourly chart.  But that's a guess as usual.  Maybe somewhere in the 2675 area.  What I don't expect is a run back up to new all time highs anytime soon.  Probably the best course of action here will be to wait for a valid signal and trade it either way.  Looking back when the market has behaved like this in the recent past, shows a sideways trading pattern for at least a few months.  That is probably what we can expect here.  We are beginning a positive seasonal area for the stock market but you wouldn't know that looking at the past week.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

No buyers just yet as the Dow fell 545 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is driving down lower and we are about to pass through the zero line, hence the falling apart.  The S&P 500 has now closed below its 200 day moving average.  RUT continues to drop below its 200 day so the selling probably isn't completely done yet.  Oversold, staying that way and that is about all you can say.  I did try the SPY October calls today but my order wasn't filled and I could be early as well.  This is a very risky trade at this point because we are heading straight down.  I do see that the futures are coming back after the close though.  I did leave in an open order for some of the SPY October calls but I'll consider what to do here overnight.  A bounce is way overdue but I don't expect any long lasting rally at this point.  We are as oversold as we've been since the drop in the beginning of the year.  GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold got the flight to safety today as the futures climbed over $30.  The XAU jumped 4 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4.  Volume was extremely heavy.  Looks like another missed trade here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Both big and small caps are now below their 200 day moving averages.  RUT has led the way here folks and it is far below its 200 day.  There will be more downside in the weeks to come at this rate.  However the extreme oversold short term condition should lend its way for a profitable call trade before expiration.  The problem here will be the timing, which will have to spot on.  This trade may be too late as well, with the positive futures after the bell.  But we are overdone to the downside in my opinion.  Crazy week so far and we just have to get through Friday now.  Asia and Europe got crushed as well overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

The market fell apart today as the Dow got clobbered and lost 831 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is falling rapidly.  We are approaching the zero line in the summation index and that is the crash zone.  It appears like we're already there after today price action.  Oversold and staying there as the market has no buyers.  RUT is well below its 200 day moving average and has led us lower.  The TRAN sliced through its 200 day moving average as well.  I tried to get the SPY October puts but failed.  In retrospect, I should have just gotten some on the first drop last week but just wasn't quick enough again.  Of course I did not expect the drop to occur so quickly this week.  We never did get a bounce back to get short.  I'm now looking at the SPY October calls for a bounce as we are way overdone to the downside.  This could simply be a catch the falling knife attempt but some of the technical indicators are so blown out that the market has to find a bit of relief.  I think that weakness tomorrow can be bought but I'm not exactly sure from what level.  The S&P 500 is at the near term support right now.  Of course staying on the sidelines is a choice here as well.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  Not a real flight to safety here yet.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls if and when it gets oversold on a daily basis.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I waited for this decline to take shape yet do not own any SPY puts.  However I do feel now that we are in a sell the rally market.  I also think that the original thesis of the bull market being over with the A-B-C-D-E rally from the 2009 lows is now in place.  RUT has broken its up trend line from the 2016 lows and the S&P 500 did the same today.  The TRAN as well.  We'll have to see where we close out the week on those but if the RUT is already far away from that line, the others should follow.  The Dow has yet to break that up trend from 2016.  Today did seem like a panic though, so a bounce could be in the offing soon.  Whether or not I give the calls a try is the question.  So we've entered a crazy time in October again.  It's usually a good buying opportunity longer term.  But we can't say where the ultimate low will be just yet.  If the bull market is over, buying here won't matter because there will be lower prices coming down the road.  The volume today was about 10 to 1 negative and that could be a blow off to the downside in the short term.  We'll have to see how the market opens tomorrow and go from there.  The 200 day moving average for the SPY comes in at 274.  That would be a spot to try the SPY October calls if you so desire.  I may take a shot there myself.  We'll see.  Overseas market were weak.  The trading tonight could get ugly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.     

Still waiting for a bounce as the Dow fell 56 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold now and staying there as the market has a definite lack of buyers.  The NASDAQ did manage to eek out a small gain but it wasn't anything the bulls can be proud of.  The VIX had another spike and retreat.  This indicator looks like it will head back down and that could produce a bounce or rally if it occurs.  Hasn't happened yet.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY October puts.  But as I said before this may simply be another missed trade.  I'm still looking for some kind of short term upside but it isn't happening yet.  GE lost a few cents on heavy volume.  Gold rose almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU lost a point and GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  Weakness has taken over for sure.  But we are short term oversold and due for some upside.  The question is will that be the chance to get short or will it be the beginning of a new up trend?  The correct answer to that question will bring profits.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY October puts as time winds down in the October option cycle.  RUT is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average and what happens there will be telling.  I'm expecting at least a bounce here as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see if we get some bounce tomorrow.   

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks heading lower by far.  I'm still interested in getting some SPY October puts on a snap back rally.  But the timing will have to be spot on.  Today feels like some kind of at least short term bottom in my view.  The VIX spiked up above 18, where past declines have stopped in the past few months.  If we do see some upside tomorrow, perhaps Wednesday will be the day to try the puts.  The bond market was closed today so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold at the 50 day moving average and the short term technical indicators are trying to turn back up.  RUT is holding on to its 200 day moving average for now as well.  The question here being is this the end of the decline or simply a spot for a dead cat bounce?  I'm guessing it's the latter.  But the market will go where it wants and could continue to decline tomorrow.  GE has had quite a turnaround and was up 3/8 on very heavy volume.  Gold dropped over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains after being lower much of the session.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have shown good relative strength vs. gold lately and that is a plus for the  precious metal bulls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So here we are with today possibly being the opportunity to try the SPY calls for a bounce trade.  It is simply too late now to attempt this idea.  Because if it is just a bounce, it won't last long.  That is what I'm counting on with respect to attempting the SPY October puts.  If we rally from here into sometime on Wednesday, I will try the SPY put trade.  If not it will be back to the drawing board.  I am of the belief that the market will run lower into the expiration a week from Friday but not without some upside first.  If that is correct we should see some positive prices action in the indices tomorrow.  If not, all bets are off.  Obviously the ideal time for the SPY puts has passed.  But that doesn't mean a profitable trade there can't happen with good timing from here.  We'll just have to see where the market goes from here.  One drawback is that time is not as plentiful as it was for the October option cycle.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll look for some upside in US equities tomorrow.

Still to the downside as the market is oversold and staying there.  The Dow fell 180 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator should be in the minus 200 level or so.  A bounce is due.  I would use that bounce to establish a short position as I believe that we are not done with the selling by any means.  The S&P 500 did hold on to its 50 day moving average but the short term technical indicators are not completely oversold yet.  The RUT bounced off of its 200 day moving average and is very oversold.  Could things hold up here?  Perhaps but I don't think so.  What I'd look for is a rally next week out of nowhere of about 200 points on the Dow.  Rallies from nowhere are hallmarks of a down trend.  Such a rally would give you a chance to purchase some index puts for the next move lower.  If the rally lasted more than a couple of days you would know that the scenario wouldn't work.  I'll be looking for such a rally.  GE bucked the tend again and gained 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report was a bit weaker than expected but it wasn't the market mover I thought it would be.  We just hung around after today open and then started to fall.  The market did come off of its worst levels but the trend is clearly down.  The Dow was off 325 points intra-day.  The NASDAQ has broken below its 50 day moving average as well.  This is a move worth chasing in my humble opinion.  My work has been off here lately but I'm a firm believer that we'll most likely see lower prices going into the expiration in two weeks.  The trick will be to find a quick rally to establish a short position.  The market doesn't usually cooperate and it may not this time as well.  We could simply keep dropping.  If that is the case we'll simply have to change direction and look for a spot to get long.  But we certainly aren't there yet.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Europe and the Asian market that were open closed lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today as the Dow fell 200 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to the downside.  The McClellan oscillator should be blown out to the downside here, which would imply a bounce.  My work that indicated a bounce for the past couple of days was obviously wrong.  I tried to chase todays move lower but eventually just canceled my open SPY put orders.  That said, if we see some upside on the jobs report tomorrow, I'll be trying the SPY October puts.  However it could be that we've seen whatever decline was coming in todays price action and that would be it.  But I'm not betting on that scenario.  We were off 350 points at some point today during the session.  Overseas markets were weak and interest rates have risen.  Those were the excuses today but we've seen the weak, deteriorating technical situation unfold beforehand.  The ideal time to purchase the SPY puts has passed but that doesn't mean that we still can't make some money to the downside.  We'll see.  GE managed a gain of over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was flat on the session, with the US dollar a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on OK volume.  The gold shares are holding up well and the GDX calls are a buy the next time they get oversold in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rut has led the way lower and continues to do so today.  The technical indicators here are oversold and staying that way.  This is a condition that won't stay that way forever.  Two weeks and a day left for the October option cycle.  The game plan now is this: any strength tomorrow can be shorted and we'll go from there.  I'll be looking at the SPY October puts and will purchase something if we get a pop to the upside.  Early negative action will be harder to trade and if that occurs I may just have to sit things out until next week.  I'll have to see the numbers tonight and go from there.  Usually when we get a shock like today there's more to come.  But that doesn't guarantee more downside, it just puts the odds of it in your favor.  So we'll see what the employment report looks like and the markets reaction to it.  Interest rates are very overbought here as well and that condition won't last forever either.  Asia and Europe sold off too.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow. 

We had some good gains early on but the market dropped in the final couple of hours.  The Dow did manage a gain of 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Not exactly sure what is going on here.  No doubt due for some upside in my opinion and on my work but we aren't seeing any.  RUT had some upside but we're still pretty oversold there.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY October puts again.  If we see some strength tomorrow, I may just purchase them.  If not I'll wait for the employment report and go from there.  The market is acting kind of strange here in my opinion.  I get the feeling that it could fall off of a cliff.  The weak breadth, narrow Dow leadership and lack of being able to hold on to any gains intra-day is a concern.  I could also make a case that the S&P 500 could hit new all time highs in the next few days as well despite all the negatives.  Interesting times.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interest rates ticked up today and perhaps that was the reason that the Dow sold off from an early 175 point gain.  We now have a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily Dow chart.  My work called for some rally here but the market just cannot hold on to any of its gains.  The summation index is heading lower but we haven't seen that reflected in price with the exception of RUT.  So I'm in kind of a quandary as to what to do next.  All signs to me really point to lower prices here eventually, so I'll probably just stick to my SPY put plan.  Over two weeks to go in the October option cycle so even if I am a bit early by purchasing them tomorrow it should work out if we indeed do drop.  But we've had plenty of chances already to fall.  Never easy in this game.  Asia was a bit lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

Yet another mixed bag today as the Dow gained 122 points while the rest of the market was lower.  Volume was about average and the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks are moving down led by RUT.  My thinking is that the big caps will follow but not before some upside first.  That's my guess at the moment.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY October puts.  The S&P 500 has tried to rally the past couple of sessions but has been held back each time.  We are close to new all time highs here but it certainly doesn't feel like it.  I'm still looking for some strength in the next couple of days but after that who knows?  So far the breakdown in RUT hasn't carried over to the overall market.  This isn't the norm.  The TRAN looks to be rolling over here as well, in a divergence with the Dow.  There is a lot of negative signs for the market despite the headline Dow new highs.  We'll see what transpires as the week progresses.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was very heavy.  Gold found a bid as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX climbed 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that the gold share trade has been missed.  There was a glaring positive RSI divergence at the beginning of September that I did not take advantage of.  After just getting wiped out with the same GDX call trade, I did not try that idea again.  Just another mistake of the many so far this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to have to keep a close eye on my open order out there because we are at a point where I do believe some upside is overdue.  If that happens it would be the set up for the SPY October put trade.  That is the idea for now.  There is nothing that says it won't be the start of a new leg up in the S&P either.  But I have harped on this before, the breadth doesn't support higher prices at this point.  The market is narrow, with fewer stocks leading the way higher right now.  But the market has a way of doing what it wants.  So keeping a close eye on what is about to happen is imperative.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle as well.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

We had a big rally early but it faded during the day.  The Dow did manage a nice gain of 192 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative though, with the NASDAQ posting a loss.  The summation index continues lower.  RUT sank below its 50 day moving average.  The VIX remains oversold.  My work indicates some upside this week but I did place an order that I left open for the SPY October puts.  I will have to adjust this overnight.  I'm not exactly sure what's going on with the market right here.  The Dow in the lead is usually a late in the uptrend event.  The breakdown in the RUT is troubling as it is usually the leader.  The breadth has been terrible lately and certainly not what you would normally see today with a rise in the Dow of almost 200 points.  So I'm cautious at the moment.  GE was up over 3/4 on the heaviest volume that I've seen there.  The CEO got fired today and the market enjoyed that.  Gold lost a couple bucks while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Here we are in the month of October.  It's known for some wild events and we'll have to see if we see that again this time around.  It's also a good time to put money to work longer term.  The seasonality turns positive for the market in this month.  As you know we've got the jobs report this Friday and that will be the focus eventually this week.  The rally today was based on a deal for NAFTA.  I don't know if that will have any market staying power.  Todays price action was a one day reversal to the downside for the NASDAQ.  The fact that the S&P 500 couldn't hold on to its gains as well isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I do think that we'll see some more upside at some point this week though.  That's what my work is indicating.  But there's no guarantees in this business.  I'll look things over again tonight.  Asia was mixed with some markets closed last night.  Europe was higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.