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Friday, September 04, 2015

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow fell 272 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The employment report came in a little light and the selling came in at the open.  The market tried to rally in the final hour but failed.  We now have a long holiday weekend to ponder the situation.  No clear short term signal one way or the other for now.  I still believe that things will hold on here and we will head back up if we retest the recent lows.  But I also haven't been right about much lately.  GE was off 1/2 on average volume.  The short term technical indicators here are more overbought than oversold.  No rush for the November calls.  Gold did not rally despite a weaker jobs number and a decline in the US dollar.  The futures were off a couple bucks or so.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  The precious metals complex is trending nowhere.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was another losing week for the Dow, along with the other major stock indices.  Getting oversold on the medium term picture here.  I suppose we will have to see what happens if the S&P 500 gets back to the lows at around the 1880 level.  That would be the area to try the SPY September calls.  If the lows hold, that would be a winning trade.  We haven't gotten there yet but perhaps we will in the shortened week upcoming.  There is no guarantee that the lows will hold though.  Perhaps the sidelines isn't such a bad place to be until I can really get a handle on what's happening.  There isn't a clear signal for a trade yet.  The option premiums are inflated as well with all the recent volatility.  Gold is going nowhere and right now I don't see a catalyst for movement there in either direction.  My ABX October calls are on life support.  Another failed trade on my part, with losses bigger than they should have been.  It doesn't look like the double bottom on the daily chart will pan out.  It will be nice to have an extra day off this weekend as the markets have been more challenging than usual lately.  Nine days remain in the September option cycle.  I'll consider the strategies over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

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