Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Continuing higher before the Fed as the Dow rose 140 points on above average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving strongly higher. It does appear that the lows are in and this was simply a correction in a long bull market. At least that is what it looks like today. I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. Short term overbought for the major stock indices. My thinking is that tomorrow will be a sell the news event but that's just a guess. The option premiums are still sky high but you can watch them get sucked out tomorrow after the Fed. It will be interesting to see. GE is a precursor after all as it gained almost 2/3 on very heavy volume. It has broken above the 50 and 200 day moving averages today. This is bullish. Any decline here can be bought and I still may attempt the November calls here. Gold even found some buyers today as the futures gained $15. The US dollar was weaker today. The XAU rose 3 points, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was heavy for the gold shares. Is that telling us that there will be no change in Fed policy? Or was it just short covering ahead of the Fed? Always plenty of questions in the game. My ABX October calls are still dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I probably will not attempt any SPY trade tomorrow. Unless something really stands out after the Fed announcement, I'll be safe on the sidelines. It really isn't my strength to attempt the short term trades. But you never know. It looks like the major stock indexes will be heading back to the resistance zone. When we get there, that would be the area to perhaps try the SPY October puts. Let me say that we are still quite a long way from that resistance area. Gold finally had a bounce but we all know that one day does not make a trend. So tomorrow we will finally get the Fed out of the way. As usual it isn't the announcement that matters, it's how the market reacts to it. My gut says that it will be a sell the news scenario. But I could be wrong. The technicals are overbought but they could stay that way. It seems like too much of a coin toss and we do not want to trade on that. We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US higher and await the Fed tomorrow.