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Thursday, September 17, 2015

A mixed bag on the Fed as the Dow lost 65 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Rates were left unchanged and the market briefly dipped but then rallied up over 150 points only to give it all back and then some.  It wasn't exactly a sell the news event that I had thought it would be, but we got there just the same.  However it wasn't a nasty decline.  We are still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  On the plus side the small stocks were higher.  So with the Fed out of the way, where do we go from here?  The decline certainly appears to be over and there doesn't seem to be a retest of the lows in the cards.  Todays candlestick charts for the stock indexes have a bearish star candle on them, so we will have to see how tomorrow shapes up.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Same candlestick chart pattern here.  Gold surged after the Fed.  The futures rose $12 as the US dollar got clobbered.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was good here again.  Not a huge move in the gold shares considering the news.  I did finally sell some of my ABX October call position for a 95% loss.  Terrible trade management there.  It was also my first negative result in months.  A step backwards to be sure.  I'll sell the remaining position in the coming days when ABX gets overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and then we'll roll into the October cycle.  We are in a negative seasonal period for stocks. But with the summation index moving higher now with conviction, I think it's safe to say the trend is up.  That doesn't mean that I won't try the SPY puts if we get to resistance.  It does mean that put trades must be short in duration.  But let's get through tomorrow first.  With no action from the Fed we will still be held hostage before each meeting until they actually do something.  Such is the game we play but it must be taken into consideration.  We'll see if gold can continue to rally overnight.  Plus we'll get the worldwide reaction to todays event.  Then close out the trading week tomorrow.

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