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Friday, September 25, 2015

A mixed session to be sure as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker, with the small stocks leading the way down.  That is not a good sign.  At one point the Dow was up 250 points but could not hold the gains.  Volatility returned and not in a good way for the bulls.  My SPY October calls had a 50% gain at one point but now are simply slightly higher.  It didn't look like a good rally with the NASDAQ under performing in the morning.  Perhaps I just wasn't nimble enough.  If we can get through Monday, I think we'll see some upside after that for a couple of days.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was good.  I still like the November calls here.  Gold shed $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a slight loss as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Yellens speech didn't yield much in the way of market moving content.  I'm sticking with the technicals as usual.  The summation index has rolled over again.  That is not a positive for calls.  The small stocks got clocked today and that isn't bullish either.  We are short term oversold for the major stock indices, which is one thing in the bulls camp.  But in down markets we can stay oversold.  Plus the negative seasonal factor for stocks is still in place.  I should probably be out of this SPY October call trade by Wednesday.  However it is Monday that will probably present a problem if we really start to head lower.  Plenty of nervousness out there for whatever reason.  I think that the most that I can hope for now is a short covering rally.  And good luck with that.  What looked like a bullish candlestick yesterday on the S&P 500 daily chart hasn't been negated yet.  But we'll need to see some sustained upside in a hurry for that to work out.  So there's plenty to think about when checking the charts out over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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