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Tuesday, September 15, 2015

In rally mode today as the Dow gained 228 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Not sure where this came from today but sometimes in down markets rallies appear from nowhere.  The small stocks continue to lead here and that is a positive.  However we are now short term overbought with the Fed on the horizon.  I'm still leaning towards trying the SPY September puts before the Fed.  But the risk will be high.  Not to mention that the short term trades are usually not my best effort.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  If GE is a precursor, then the market will be heading higher.  If that is the case, we can assume that the decline is over.  But that is all conjecture at this point.  Gold fell about $4 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX were flat on the day with very light volume.  Still no interest or movement for the precious metals.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales were practically in line with expectations today.  Perhaps today was simply short covering with maybe more of the same tomorrow.  If we get to 200 on the SPY, I'll probably try the puts on a very short term basis.  But the premiums remain elevated and they will rapidly decline once the Fed announcement is out of the way.  So there is also a chance that I'll do nothing.  Which by the way would probably be the most sane course of action.  So we'll see.  The overseas markets were mixed overnight with Europe higher and Asia lower.  I'll keep an eye on the action tonight and then decide what to do tomorrow.   

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