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Monday, September 21, 2015

We begin the week with the Dow gaining 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  On the plus side we did not get any downside follow through to Friday.  On the minus side the small stocks were relatively weaker.  The short term indicators are neither overbought or oversold.  I will try and wait for some type of signal before attempting the next SPY trade.  The option premiums are still rather high as we have just shifted into the October cycle and the volatility is still above average.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  GE has acted well here and I will be looking at the November calls if we get oversold.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was average.  Coming off of short term overbought for the gold shares.  No trades in mind there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With the losing ABX trade in the books, it's time to move on.  We are still in a weak seasonal time frame for stocks.  However the seasonal strength certainly did not work for the gold shares.  A case can be made that we are talking about two completely different markets.  That said, I think the prudent course of action here is to be patient and wait for the next signal for the SPY.  It may take a few days.  However with the summation index moving up, the bias should be to the upside and purchasing calls.  So we'll see and we'll trade it either way depending on the technicals.  The Japanese market will be closed again tonight but we'll keep an eye on the rest.

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