Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Let me just say that the market is in dire straits here and has to hold on or it will fall apart. The Dow came back in the last half hour and finished with a gain of 47 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative though and the small stocks continue lower. The summation index is dropping as well. We are short term oversold and the technical indicators pretty much guarantee a big up day tomorrow. But there are no guarantees in this business. I do think that we will see a triple digit move higher tomorrow. After that, who knows? The breakdown in the RUT is a very negative sign. I should probably dump my SPY October calls tomorrow if we bounce and take the loss. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. Perhaps GE will once again be a precursor for the overall market. Gold was off $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. Still no interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock market has a decidedly bearish tone to it and just about anything can happen in the coming days. The big cap averages are trying to hold the most recent lows but with the breakdown in the small stocks, it appears that lower prices overall are just a matter of time. To me, tomorrow will be one of the most important sessions we've had in some time. It is the end of the month, so some selling is to be expected. But if we don't have the strong up session that I am anticipating, then watch out below. There is a potential positive divergence in the RSI with regards to the daily charts of the major stock indices. However is has yet to be seen if it is valid. That is about the only hope for the bulls here. My SPY October call trade will most likely be a loser. So hold onto your seats as tomorrow will be an interesting day. We'll watch the foreign markets tonight and go from there.