Monday, September 14, 2015
Waiting on the Fed today as the Dow fell 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher for now but there is no conviction. 4 days to go in the September option cycle and the premiums are still very high. As soon as the Fed decision is made public, both the puts and the calls will have the premium sucked out of them. You will have to be on the right side of that trade and even then there are no guarantees. However it will be a money making opportunity for some. I'm not sure if I am going to trade it. GE was off 18 cents on light volume. Patience here for now. Gold was up just a bit on the futures. The US dollar was slightly positive. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll get retail sales tomorrow and that should provide some trading fodder. I think that if we make it back up to around 200 on the SPY before the announcement, then I might try the puts for a short term trade. But there certainly is a lot of bearishness to go around at the moment. Some of the short term technicals here are more overbought than oversold. With such a short amount of time remaining in this option cycle, perhaps the risk is not worth the reward. Going out to October could be an option. Gold is still a non event and uninteresting to most. My ABX October calls are dead. That is shaping up to be one of my worst trades of the year. And we still have over 3 months left in 2015. We'll see how the foreign markets trade overnight and take it from there.