Tuesday, September 01, 2015
September begins with a thud as the Dow fell 470 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. This will probably turn the summation index back down. This could be the start of a retest of the most recent low set last week. If we get back down there perhaps we will see a positive divergence in the RSI and the McClellan oscillator. If so, then the SPY September calls will be in order. But that is all conjecture here as we don't know where the market will lead us from here. It is possible that we will just continue lower. But if the positive divergences show up, you know what to do. GE was off almost a full point on very heavy volume. We haven't seen the bearish moving average crossover here yet. I'm still considering the November calls for GE. Gold gained $7 on the futures but it was higher during the session. The US dollar dropped today. The gold shares continue to under perform as the XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility looks like it's here to stay for a while. I do not know the reason. Obviously there is something beneath the surface going on but not so obvious that I know what it is. Perhaps playing it cautious is the most prudent course of action here. The Fed minutes tomorrow should be a market mover with this environment. If we reach short term oversold, I'll try the SPY September calls. Not there yet. I suppose I may as well face the facts. I'm stuck in a losing ABX October call trade and it may be influencing what I do elsewhere. The mental capital involved in trading is always more important than the money. Not that I have a handle on what's happening in the stock market at this time. But holding onto a losing trade is a drain in itself. There is a potential double bottom being formed in ABX on the daily charts. That is about the only sliver of hope left in this trade. We'll see if todays carnage carries overseas and take it from there.