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Thursday, December 12, 2013

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 104 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The underlying market action was better than a 100 point loss day would imply.  The small stocks were acting better today and I would expect some upside tomorrow due to the short term oversold nature of the stock indices at the moment.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  Certain stock indexes are trying to hold their 50 day moving averages.  They have so far.  The late day weakness again doesn't spark confidence though.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average for lately.  I still don't have any trades in mind here for now.  Perhaps the January calls.  Gold got pounded today as the futures fell over $30 on a stronger US dollar.  The gold shares fared much better, only off a point.  That's bullish for the short term.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other after being lower early on.  Volume was light.  I'm back to considering the January gold share calls but probably not until next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The McClellan oscillator is getting pretty oversold at this point.  That doesn't mean that it can't go lower but the odds favor some type of bounce there.  After that we could head on back down again but we'll have to see what kind of bounce we get.  A lot will be determined by the Fed next week.  Any surprises there could ramp up the volatility.  Gold had a bounce early in the week and has since given everything back.  That isn't a good sign.  We did hold the $1220 level but perhaps a test of $1200 is still in the works.  The gold shares are still holding their lows from last week so far as well.  The Fed should play a role in the movement for gold as well.  If they begin the tapering in December, conventional wisdom says that won't be positive for the price of gold.  We'll watch what transpires overnight and finish off the trading week tomorrow.

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