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Friday, December 13, 2013

We got very slight upside today as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We are trying to stabilize here in my opinion since we are at the 50 day moving averages in some of the stock indices.  Plus we are now short term oversold.  One week left in the December option cycle and it is possible that it is time to try the OEX calls.  The problem is the summation index that continues lower.  Of course the market will turn to move this indicator back up but picking when that happens is the key.  The summation index could just continue to head lower.  I'm guessing the Fed announcement on Wednesday will be the key.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Maybe the strength in GE is letting us know that the market is poised to move higher near term.  That's a guess as usual but it's something to think about over the weekend.  Gold was up about 10 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed at the end of the day.  The XAU only managed to gain 1/3.  ABX added 1/4 but GG and NEM finished almost unchanged.  The volume was light.  Not sure what to do here now.  The open interest in the GG January call that I was considering contracted quite a bit yesterday.  Whoever had put on such a large position took a lot of it off.  Putting on a gold share call trade here is something else to think about over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most of the stock indexes had a negative week.  Is this the beginning of a protracted decline?  Could be but this time of the year is usually positive.  If we don't rally from here soon the implications for next year would be bearish.  We are short term oversold though and I will consider some December OEX calls over the weekend.  Gold has held the $1220 level so far and has a potential double bottom on the weekly charts.  There remains little interest there though as we rallied early in the week and then gave it all right back.  Medium term oversold for the gold shares.  The short term technical picture there is mixed.  I'll be checking the charts here over the weekend.  Next week will probably be the last week of decent volume before the beginning of next year due to the upcoming holidays.  If I do decide on a trade it will have to be put on early in the week most likely.  So we'll see what happens.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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