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Friday, December 27, 2013

Running in place today as the Dow lost a point or so on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Still overbought on the stock indices.  The summation index is still moving higher.  Only two days left for 2013.  The small stocks were under performers today but it is hard to read anything into a holiday biased session.  We certainly won't go up forever.  I think that we are closer to a top than most people think.  But I could be wrong and often am.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold was up a buck on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower again.  The XAU rose a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional gains on light volume.  It looks like it may be too late to try the gold share call trade for January.  I'll have to see some pullback on Monday or Tuesday to attempt this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a great year for the stock indexes.  Everybody is expecting a nice pop to start the new year, myself included.  After that, who knows?  We are overbought both short and medium term.  Perhaps we will see some beginning of the year blow off top.  But the upside from here is limited in my opinion.  Some of my technical indicators are getting off the charts overbought and warning of some negative action to come.  At the very least some sideways activity.  So I really do not want to go chasing things on the upside here.  Gold is hanging in there above the $1200 level.  However this is such a light volume limited participation week, it is hard to say a bottom is being put in.  That said, it is possible that the precious metal is just about sold out for now.  That's a guess as usual.  I'm still interested in the gold share calls for the beginning of next year but I may go out to the February contract.  It is something to think about over the weekend.  Most of the major players should be returning to their desks next week as we close out the year and begin the trading for 2014.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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