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Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The great taper has begun.  I mean the media loved the name Great Recession so let's call this the great taper.  The Fed has slowly begun to reign in the easy money policy but it was a token gesture to begin with.  At first the markets sold off but then came a huge reversal since most of easy money remains in place.  The Dow soared 292 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  Todays price action should move the summation index back to the upside.  We hit a new closing high for the Dow.  The small stocks are lagging just a bit here but that shouldn't be a problem.  The Santa Claus rally is in full swing.  Once again there is no overhead resistance and we'll just have to see how far we can go.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was pretty good.  A new closing high here as well.  Probably too late for the January calls now but we'll see.  Gold was up $4 on the futures as the US dollar rose slightly.  Gold looks to be falling in the aftermarket.  Todays Fed announcement can't possibly be seen as a positive for gold.  We are still above the $1220 level for now.  The XAU fell a point after being higher before the Fed.  ABX and GG had slight fractional losses, while NEM was flat.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  If and when we get to an oversold level in the gold shares, I might try the calls.  But there is no hurry at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed announcement and the next leg up has begun.  Any weakness can be purchased in my opinion.  The holiday rally is in full swing.  I'd probably think that it is prudent to let next week pass before taking on any option positions.  The volume will most likely be pretty light.  I guess I'll be looking at the GE January calls if the opportunity presents itself.  Gold remains in the dumps.  Perhaps we'll get a final washout move down now.  Or maybe it will just be a slow grind to nowhere.  The fundamentals for gold remain negative in my mind.  Better trades from the long side will probably be found elsewhere.  The Fed is now out of the way.  It remains a time to be patient though as we need to get through the holiday trading of next week.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to todays big US rally and go from there.

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