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Wednesday, October 02, 2013

We could not build on yesterdays gains as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The markets sold off hard in the morning and came back throughout the rest of the session.  Still technically oversold for the major stock indices.  The small stocks and the overall market once again were stronger than the Dow.  I doubt that we will head much lower near term despite the US government shutdown.  A deal will get done and then the market will focus on earnings.  The debt ceiling deadline will be dealt with as well.  The stock indexes are due for a better bounce than what we saw on Tuesday.  GE was up 1/8 or so on average volume.  I still have no pending trade ideas for GE at the moment.  Gold bounced back as the precious metal futures rose over $30, which was about what we lost yesterday.  The US dollar hit fresh recent lows.  The XAU didn't reflect the nice gains in gold, only rising 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on OK volume.  When the gold shares can't get a rally with a $30 rise in gold, that can hardly be considered bullish.  I'm still interested in the ABX November calls though.  The timing of the purchase will be important as usual.  Maybe next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are being held hostage by Washington at the moment.  Volatility is up as we wait for the next sound bite from Congress.  Hardly the normal trading environment.  My thinking remains that as long as the small stocks continue to lead to the upside, there is no catastrophe waiting in the wings.  I could be wrong.  Gold made a comeback today and it needed it to remain with a chance at some type of rally going forward.  Unfortunately the gold shares did not follow.  My October ABX calls remain big losers and I may dump them before this week ends.  With only 12 trading days to go in the October option cycle, the odds are against ABX making it back up to my strike price.  Once again we'll keep an eye on Washington and the overseas activity tonight.

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