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Thursday, October 10, 2013

The market exploded to the upside as a deal on the debt ceiling is in the works.  Not the budget problem but the debt problem.  The Dow soared 323 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  We were short term oversold on the stock indices but this was quite a move higher in one day.  It might be enough to turn the summation index back to neutral.  I'd expect more follow through tomorrow.  The next question will be if the decline is over.  The answer is probably yes but we'll have to have the market confirm.  The volatility during a headline driven environment is evident.  But that is what we have to deal with for now.  GE was up 2/3 and the volume was OK.  Back above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold fell $10 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was off 1/4 but should drop even more tomorrow with the negative action in the gold aftermarket.  ABX had a fractional gain, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was average.  The ABX calls that I purchased yesterday are still in the black but I don't expect that to last.  With gold breaking the $1300 level it cannot be viewed as positive for the precious metal.  So I will have to decide where to go on this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a day for stocks today.  We knew there would be a bounce when some kind of deal was announced but this one was much bigger than I expected.  And a deal hasn't actually even happened yet.  So we'll see what happens in the stock market tomorrow.  Gold remains unloved and heading lower.  $1275 is the near term support but if that doesn't hold we'll be heading back down to $1200.  The gold shares are hanging in there for now but it won't last if gold continues lower.  I'll have to rethink the November ABX call trade tonight.  We'll watch the foreign markets for more upside overnight and go from there. 

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