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Wednesday, October 09, 2013

The stock indices tried to rally today but it wasn't much..  The Dow rose 26 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and the small stocks were lower.  Not a bullish scenario.  The summation index continues lower.  We got the Fed minutes today and the market didn't have much of a reaction.  Still waiting on Washington to sort out the budget mess.  The trend remains down and I'd expect lower prices despite the current oversold technical condition.  When we get a deal out of Congress we'll get a relief rally.  Hasn't happened yet.  GE lost 1/4 and volume was average.  Probably heading lower here too.  Gold fell today on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures were off $17.  Gold seems to be going nowhere.  The XAU was only off an 1/8 though.  ABX was flat on the session, while GG and NEM had slight fractional gains.  Volume was average.  I purchased some November ABX calls today.  They are slightly in the black.  The gold shares remain short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow bounced off of its 200 day moving average today and if things can't hold up here it could get ugly.  I'm thinking it can't be all that bad since until today the small stocks were holding up much better.  We aren't near the zero line in the summation index, so a complete breakdown isn't a near term concern.  Volume has picked up in the past 2 days which tells me something is going on beneath the surface.  I'm trying the ABX calls again.  Still oversold on the technicals for ABX and have been for a while.  That condition will not last forever.  I may be early on this position but there is also a chance that I'm right on time.  We'll see about that in the coming days.  The foreign markets are now showing much better relative strength vs. the US.  We'll see how long that can keep up.  Still waiting on some kind of deal out of Washington remains the market mantra.  We'll keep an eye on any developments overnight and take it from there.  

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