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Thursday, October 03, 2013

Oversold and staying there as the Dow fell another 136 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  Remaining oversold without a bounce is not a bullish scenario.  Todays action will turn the summation index down and that isn't positive either.  So once again caution has to be advised.  I did not think that the market would remain oversold but it has.  I still say that the budget will be solved and the debt ceiling will be raised.  The question is when?  Yesterday I did not think that we had much more to go on the downside.  However after today I am not so sure.  We should have had a better bounce or attempt at a rally.  It hasn't happened.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was better than yesterday.  Still holding the 50 day moving average here.  Perhaps I'll try some GE calls when things get back to normal.  Gold fell a few bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  With all the turmoil it is a surprise that gold cannot find much of a bid.  I don't know why.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of 1/4 or more on light volume.  I dumped the October ABX calls for an 85% loss.  No sense in hanging on anymore there.  That trade was not going to come back in the remaining 2 weeks.  I'm still looking at rolling out to the November ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has picked up and that drives up the option premiums as it always does.  So what can we look for next?  I'd expect a rally once all the Washington BS is settled but the time frame is in question.  I'm guessing it will all be resolved before option expiration.  I'm not sure what my next trade will be with the OEX.  Gold continues to go nowhere despite a lower US dollar and the ultimate in market uncertainty.  So perhaps trading the gold shares from the long side is not the best idea.  I'll ponder this in the days to come.  Regardless, the markets are being held hostage by the stalemate in Washington.  When this gets resolved it will be important to see what kind of rally ensues.  I'll also be keeping an eye on the summation index.  If it does keep heading lower there will certainly be more downside to come.  As always we'll watch the overnight action and go from there.

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