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Wednesday, June 06, 2012

The stock market soared today as the Dow gained 286 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  This is the type of short covering, explosive up move that you should expect after the market had gotten so very oversold.  We haven't broken the down trend line on the major stock indices yet but I think we will in a matter of time.  You've got the positive RSI divergence and what looks like the completion of an A-B-C-D-E move down on the daily charts.  Todays action should move the summation index back up.  The market knows things that we don't and we have to listen to it.  Of course things could all change tomorrow if Europe implodes but I don't expect anything like that to happen.  GE took off and it looks like the July call trade has been missed.  GE rose 2/3 on average volume.  If we are lucky enough to get some type of pullback here, I'd be willing to give the July calls a try.  But I think the time has passed.  Gold had an interesting day as it gained $17 on the futures but then began to sell off in the aftermarket when the Fed beige book was released.  The dollar took a beating today and there was no real reason.  Perhaps the market is telegraphing the end of the euro worries for now.  The XAU was up 1/3 but was higher earlier in the day.  ABX was the big loser of the day, down over 1 1/2 as it announced the dumping of its CEO.  GG and NEM had small fractional gains.  The gold shares are due a rest and now is as good a time as any.  That's a guess as usual.  I might try the ABX calls for June since they have really come of off the highs.  Today was a one day reversal as ABX opened higher and closed lower.  Also todays downside move in ABX was a news driven event and the problems in Europe haven't quite been solved just yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was an incredible move to the upside and I believe it to be real.  However in bear markets sometimes rallies spring up from nowhere.  Today certainly fits that description.  But I think that there is enough technical evidence to declare the downside finished here for the stock indices.  I'll be looking to get long on pullbacks.  It looks like I've missed the GE call trade just as I missed the recent gold share call trade.  This is a pattern that I need to break.  I might try the gold shares to the long side here if we get some short term decline.  Bernanke will be flapping his gums in front of Congress tomorrow and we should move off of that one way or the other.  We should see some follow through rallies overseas tonight and go from there. 

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