Thursday, June 21, 2012
Is the summer rally over already? The Dow got clobbered today, losing 250 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative. The economic data was weak today but it has been for a while. It was simply a mass sell off of all assets. I don't know the reasons why. Oil broke the $80 level today which implies demand is even weaker than previously thought. Is there a worldwide economic contraction about to take place? Is Europe about to implode? Many questions come to the surface after a day like today. Especially since it came out of nowhere. Time will tell if it was a one day wonder or not. GE fell over 1/2 on good volume. We were on the cusp of breaking out from the resistance that has been in place since early 2011. We've now pulled back from there. I don't know what the next move is from here after todays debacle. I am no longer looking at the July calls here. Gold got hammered as the US dollar returned as a safe haven today. The precious metal fell $50 on the futures. The XAU dropped 9 1/8. ABX off by 2, GG lost 1 2/3 and NEM shed 2 1/2. Volume was light. I mentioned possibly getting some GDX puts 2 days ago but the option premiums didn't get to where I wanted. That was finally an idea that would have been the right move. However I'm still looking out 2 or 3 months for the gold share calls and todays drop in price will make those options look more attractive price wise. However I'm not exactly sure what is going on here with the markets so I'll be on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Todays action was really a shot out of the blue. I don't think anybody saw a day like this coming out of nowhere. It will be important to see if there is any follow through tomorrow. Even with todays action the summation index will still be trending higher. Gold got clocked and we will have to see if it can find support at its recent lows. It will also be interesting to see what happens overseas tonight and tomorrow. I'll need to check the charts tonight and try to figure out what is going on. However a more in depth study of things will need to occur over the weekend.