Monday, June 11, 2012
It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 143 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Spain is getting a bailout now and I suppose that can be the reason for todays action. We were short term overbought on the stock indices and some type of pullback was expected. Where we go from here is the question and I don't have the answers. My best guess is that we will be moving higher, not lower, going forward. I do not think that we will break the lows recently seen. Not yet at least. GE was off a bit on light volume. The relative strength here has been impressive, as GE was actually higher for most of the day. I'm still considering the July calls but perhaps the opportune time has passed. Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was up a touch as well. The XAU however followed the overall market lower, losing 2 2/3. ABX and NEM fell 3/4, while GG lost 1/2. Volume was about average. My ABX calls remain in the red. It looks like this trade will be a loser unless ABX makes a quick turnaround. That doesn't seem very likely but gold can be volatile and there are 9 days to go in the June option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Markets around the globe began with strong rallies when they opened only to sell off as the sessions progressed. Not exactly sure what that means going forward but it usually isn't bullish. We're still in a headline driven environment. Have to see if there is follow through downside tomorrow. Gold saw a bit of a bid today on the ongoing uncertainty but the gold shares did not follow. My recent ABX trade is not going well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.