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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Short covering and buying before the Fed as the Dow rose 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  We were up around 150 during the day.  The summation index continues to the upside and we are in full blown summer rally mode.  Even if the Fed does nothing and we drop tomorrow, the market wants to go higher.  Overbought, staying there and what more can I say?  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  It's pattern today mirrored the overall market, closing off of its high.  Perhaps the July calls are to purchased on a pullback but it looks like the majority of the up move has occurred.  That could change if we break through the resistance that we are knocking on at the moment.  Gold fell a few dollars on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  This despite the US dollar getting clobbered today.  Gold should be moving higher with a weaker US dollar.  The XAU was up about 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on light volume.  I'm considering getting some GDX puts before the Fed tomorrow.  The gold shares are overbought and if the Fed does nothing tomorrow gold should drop.  If a lower dollar isn't helping gold then perhaps the market is telling us something.  Or not.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So we'll get the Fed announcement and go from there.  It is bound to be a market mover since the anticipation is even higher than normal.  Everyone expects the Fed to do something now, so if it doesn't we should see some selling.  Even so, declines can be purchased for now in my opinion.  I'm expecting a drop in gold tomorrow and if the premiums are where I'd like to see them I may purchase some GDX July puts.  We'll see.  The overseas stock indexes rallied yesterday and I would expect some follow through tomorrow.  As the world settles down the flight to safety trade is being unwound.  That would help explain todays weakness in the US dollar and gold.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

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