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Thursday, June 07, 2012

The Dow continued higher today as it rose 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative as the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Bernanke gave no hints of more QE but the markets were higher for most of the day.  However the markets could not hold on to their gains.  Tomorrow will be important for the near term direction of things.  If we can rally again, that would really be a positive going forward.  If not, we'll still be held hostage by the problems in Europe.  Technically the stock indices broke through their down trend lines from May but have since returned to those lines.  The indicators are mid-range.  GE was up 1/8 on very heavy volume.  I'm not sure what all the volume was about.  I'll try the July calls here if we get some pullback.  Gold got hammered today as the futures fell about $45.  Bernankes testimony was the supposed culprit.  The US dollar was only up a touch.  The XAU fell 4 1/4, which wasn't that bad considering the drop in gold.  ABX off 1 2/3, GG dropped 1 1/8 and NEM fell a buck.  Volume was good.  I put in an overnight order for some ABX June calls and it was filled in the morning.  This trade is already in the red.  ABX has fallen much more than I expected on the news of the CEOs firing, having lost 5 points in 2 days.  There's still 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle and I plan on holding this trade into sometime next week.  But it already isn't looking good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see what happens tomorrow before the weekend but I'm still thinking that the decline is over for the most part.  I'm sticking with the theory that declines can now be bought.  If the price of the July GE calls that I'm looking at come down enough, I'll be giving that trade a try.  I do think that there is a possibility that things will slow down after the June expiration.  The Greek election and the Fed meeting will be behind us by then.  Volatility has returned for now and that should keep option premiums higher than usual.  I'm in my next trade and it looks like I'm early.  Gold is really moving around here but I think the worst is over there as well.  We'll see what happens tonight and take it from there.

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