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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

It's a 2 day rally now as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The market breadth implies higher prices are coming.  The problem here is the volume is light and I don't trust light volume rallies.  We now have lows above lows and also highs below highs in the S&P 500.  So the market is still trying to figure out which way to go.  I'm back to leaning towards the bullish cause.  GE is one of the reasons why as it gained 1/3 on average volume.  On the daily chart, GE broke its downtrend line since March, snapped back to that line last week and has now resumed its uptrend.  It appears that the resistance at 20.25 will soon be taken out.  The July calls were the correct trade.  But that could all change on the next headline out of Europe.  Gold was up a couple of bucks today on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My August ABX calls are in the red and I do not like the way this trade has started out.  The technicals for ABX are oversold though so we should at least see some type of bounce here soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting on the European summit and some economic data out tomorrow.  End of the month, quarter and first half of the year on Friday.  The summation index continues higher.  I'm already not feeling too good about this ABX August call trade.  The entry timing was off.  There has been nothing but bad news for ABX lately.  Perhaps I'll just simply exit the trade before the weekend.  Next week should be slow with the July 4th holiday on Wednesday.  Perhaps I should have simply stayed on the sidelines a bit longer.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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