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Thursday, January 26, 2012

We had a one day reversal today as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 22 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and that's the second time we've seen that here lately. No technical damage has been done to this extended rally in the indices but we're beginning to see signs that it's getting tired and may need a rest. February more often than not is a bit weaker when we are in a rising market. GE lost a touch after opening higher as well. Yesterday it looked like we were going to break out to the upside from the congestion zone. Today we are simply still in the zone. Perhaps the GDP report tomorrow will change things. No trades in GE for now but perhaps the March option cycle. Gold continued higher, adding on to yesterdays gains by $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit weaker today. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX up 1/2, GG tacked on 1 1/8 and NEM added 1/4. Volume was good. I left in an open order for some gold share calls overnight but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving in another open order for some ABX February calls overnight. Since we've seen a valid breakout in gold, I would expect further gains in the gold shares. The timing is late though. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. The rally continues in the stock indexes but I think we are beginning to see signs that it is long in the tooth. I could be wrong but we have remained overbought for a very extended time. Gold has broken out and will move higher in my opinion. We'll wrap things up tomorrow and go from there.

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