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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The Fed spoke and the market listened as the Dow rose 83 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Overbought for weeks now and no sign of a top. I really don't know how long this can go on but I do know this. It will probably last longer than you think and it already has. Summation index continues higher. So the scenario remains the same for now. GE was up 30 cents on OK volume. We're still in the recent congestion zone here but it now looks like GE wants to break out to the upside. I don't have any trades here in mind for GE though. Gold was one of the stories of the day as it rallied $35 dollars on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket on the Fed. The US dollar fell in reaction to the continued easy US monetary policy. The XAU exploded to the upside by 11 1/3. ABX and GG were both up 3 and NEM rose 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. I placed an overnight order in for the ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I am leaving in an overnight order in for some GG calls in hopes of a pullback. But it probably won't come tomorrow. I do not like to chase moves however in this case price and volume have broken out and that can't be ignored. In retrospect the Gold/XAU ratio was close enough to justify purchasing the gold share calls. The gold exchange traded fund GLD has broken through the downtrend line that has been in effect since September. The next technical expectation would be a pullback towards that line. That will be the point to purchase the gold share calls after missing this opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling a bit miffed for missing the gold share call trade. However the market doesn't care and really, neither should I. But I don't like missing out on decent trades more than I don't like losing money. It doesn't matter though as the game goes on and there will always be another trade. You've got to keep moving on. I'm going to try the gold share calls anyway if I get the chance. I'm also considering some OEX puts for February if we get some sort of RSI or momentum signal. Hasn't happened yet but I'll be looking for that as we go into February. Plenty of economic data at the end of this week but the Fed announcement may trump any of that. We'll see.

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