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Friday, January 20, 2012

Onward and upward we go as the Dow gained 96 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. Something changed today however as the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. Perhaps this is a divergence worth paying attention to. Or not. It could just be a byproduct of the option expiration today. But it is worth mentioning since this is the first time in a while that we've seen it. Still very overbought on the technicals for the stock indices. This won't last forever. GE came out with its earnings this morning and the stock sold off. However it came all the way back during the course of the trading day to finish unchanged. Volume was heavy. The technicals on GE mirror the overall market. Overbought, staying there and it is overdue for some pullback. Gold was up around $10 on the futures, while the US dollar ended the session practically flat. The precious metal has held up rather well here and is overbought as well. The XAU fell a point though as the gold shares are not following the metal itself. ABX down 2/3, GG gained 1/2 and NEM lost 1/3. Volume was heavy in the gold shares. ABX came out with what was viewed as bad news, in the same manner as NEM did on Tuesday. The technicals on the gold shares are getting oversold. I'm getting a possible positive RSI divergence on one of my ABX charts. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost to the buy signal. So it's possible the time to get the February gold share calls is upon us. The only caveat is that gold itself is overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still moving higher on the stock indexes but we are both short and medium term overbought. That hasn't stopped us from going up but at some point it will. The question is when? The gold shares are looking interesting to me and I think that next week I'll be giving the February calls a try. We'll see. I will have to check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. For now it's the end of another trading week and time for a rest.

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