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Monday, April 05, 2010

An upside start to the week as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the 3 week sideways action. The small stocks are strong and leading the way. The trend remains up until further notice. The rally continues with no end in sight. We will be hitting resistance in the S&P 500 at 1200. But at this rate, we should eventually work through it. Gold was up $7 today and the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM gained 7/8. Volume was anemic. That has been the problem with this rally in the gold shares. The volume is light. I don't trust light volume rallies. In fact, I'm even considering getting some puts on the gold shares here. The dollar was flat today but with interest rates rising in the US, I don't see a big drop there. We've moved to overbought on the gold shares as well. Only 9 days remain in the April option cycle. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. A bit confused as to what to do here, with regards to an April option cycle trade. The risk is high and I don't have any clear signals as of yet. I may have to stay on the sidelines. I think my focus is a bit off right now, for whatever reasons. I'll work on things this evening and go from there.

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