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Wednesday, April 07, 2010

A bit of volatility today as the Dow fell 72 points today on better volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We sold off more than a hundred at one point. I thought we would be higher today and then drop but wrong again. I'm not looking for any big decline here but I suppose anything could happen. However with expiration next week I would expect a positive bias at least until that's over. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $17. The XAU rose 3 1/2 points. ABX up 1 1/4, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 7/8. Volume increased. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the long consolidation. My open order for ABX puts was filled near the open and it's a loser. I should be cutting the loss tomorrow unless we get a complete turnaround to the downside. And I doubt that. The gold shares showed great relative strength today compared to the overall market. The dollar was higher but gold rallied anyway again. You cannot fight that. This was a short term trade and I was wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it looks like another losing trade. In retrospect, I should have stuck with the May gold share call scenario. And I still might. I looks like any weakness in the gold shares can be bought here. I may give that a try if the opportunity presents itself. I really need to stick to the longer term trades because I usually do not do well on the shorter term ones. This is a lesson that needs to be learned. I also probably should have just exited the ABX put trade today when I saw that it was going to be a loser. Sometimes you're just wrong, as I was today. We'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there.

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